An increasing dissatisfaction by Ukrainians with the state’s inability to cope with the current problems is playing into the hands of far-right radicals, who are stepping out against Kiev and may inspire a new revolution that will eventually result in the collapse of Ukraine.
Armed radical factions can bring Ukraine to its end as a state even before snow falls for the first time this year, American journalist Lev Golinkin wrote for Foreign Policy.
He pointed out that the vast majority of revolutions in Eastern Europe usually start as winter begins.
“Once the cold settles in, the
[Ukrainian] government’s empty promises are laid bare. Over the next several
days, forecasters are predicting, the temperature in Ukraine will plunge
to freezing. When President Petro Poroshenko looks at the
thermometer, he should be worried,” Golinkin wrote.
According to Golinkin, Ukraine’s citizens are
fuming because of falling living standards and the government's inability
to rid the country of raging corruption and punish the oligarchs.
These are considered the problems that “sparked” the Maidan protests in 2013.
“Ukraine — fresh off a revolution and followed
by 19 months of war — is far from stable. Its citizens have
more weapons than they do trust in their government,” the journalist
wrote, explaining that if Ukrainians can’t “scrape” money to feed and warm
their families, they will obviously blame authorities for the challenges
and this time will express their fury not in the voting booths,
but in the streets of Kiev.
Golinkin believes that a possible uprising will be best
scenario for far-rights radicals. Until now, they all had common enemies –
Russia and pro-independence seekers in the east of the country. But
now they have their eyes fixed on Kiev.
As for now, both government and radical powers
in Ukraine are in a standoff. Petro Poroshenko isn’t entitled
to disband the extremist factions across the country and radicals are
incapable of taking on the capital openly.
“For that [triggering a new revolution], they’ll
[radicals] need to have everyday people protesting in the streets.
They need another Maidan,” Golinkin pointed out.
The crowd is the best “fuel” for ultra-right
powers; they succeed when they can intermix with protestors in the
street, presenting themselves as fighters against corruption and
breach of justice. This would bring Poroshenko to a situation
in which he could no longer implement IMF reforms, as he would face a
new revolt in the heart of Kiev.
“At worst, this would set off a chain
of events that would rapidly turn the country into a fractured,
failed state of 45 million people in the middle of Europe,”
Golinkin concluded.
The Right Sector is a Ukrainian coalition
of far-right groups, which actively took part in clashes
with law enforcement and the seizing of administrative facilities
in the country’s capital in the beginning of 2014. They also
participated in a crackdown on mass protests in eastern Ukraine
later in April. The organization was banned in Russia and criminal
charges were filed against its leader Dmytro Yarosh for his calls
for terrorist activity.
Source: Sputnik News 11-10-2015
