What are the
objectives of the global
economic war against Russia? Will the
West disconnect Russia from SWIFT? Will Europe and the USA impose more
sanctions on Russia? What's happening to the oil prices? Will Syrian President
Bashar Assad surrender? Pravda.Ru asked these and other questions in an
interview with Ron Holland, author of many best-selling books
It has been a year
since the US economic war against Russia began by the West. Which objectives
have been set and have they been achieved?
I would suggest the
objectives have been three fold but in fact I would date the sanctions war from
Friday August 30, 2013. This was when President Putin offered a peaceful
alternative at the last moment to stop the US military operation against Bashar
al-Assad and Syria that was within hours
of starting. Surprisingly the US called off the attack and this set in motion a
series of events contrary to the goals of the US administration. I believe
both Russia and China covertly played the Treasury debt card in order to
protect their client states, Syria and Iran, from the impending US invasion.
I wrote in my
September editorial at that time; Did Putin
Quietly Play the Debt Card Over Syria that both Russia and China might have covertly played the Treasury
debt card in order to protect their allies, Syria and Iran, from an impending
US invasion.
Thus the planned Syrian
invasion was to first secure the land
route to build the Qatar-Turkey pipeline designed to end European dependence on
Russian gas and pipelines. Second was to put US forces on the land border of
Iran when they had secured Syria in order to ratchet up the pressure on Iran to
give in to Washington demands. The third reason was to close any potential base
options for the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Mediterranean on the Syrian
coast just prior to the move on Ukraine and
Crimea both planned to vacate both the
Russia fleet and bases as well as secure the oil and gas shipping pipelines and
Black Sea transit. None of these objectives were attained.
Another major defeat
was the Washington & London scheme to force Russia out of SWIFT, the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, as
this entity is how banks globally transfer funds. But on Monday March 9, SWIFT
didn't kick Russia out but rather offered Russia a seat on the board.
Now this wasn't
because SWIFT was trying to be fair but because the Western controlled entity
is now faced with competition from CIPS, the new China International Payment
System which Russia plans to join. This will offer a new option allowing global
banks to communicate and transfer funds that does not depend on fair treatment
or a "hands off" attitude by US politicians.
So although Russia
has escaped most of the sanctions and threats to date, the financial
costs to Russia have been great for resisting the US, as low oil prices, hence
currency war and a growing list of US sanctions have caused Russia to incur
significant costs for resisting Washington domination and control.
Because of anti-Russian
sanctions the EU lost €21
billion. Such data was given by the Spain's Minister of Foreign Affairs and
Cooperation José Manuel García-Margallo y Marfil. When will Europe go the
length of lifting sanctions that were imposed under the pressure of the US from
your point of view? Or will they be strengthening sanctions?
Well there already
appears to be a split between many of the EU nations and Germany and the
foreign policy dictates of the United States. While the length and severity of
the sanctions are somewhat dependent upon Russian actions regarding the
Ukraine, they would certainly strengthen should Russia or the separatist New
Russia forces advance further into the Ukraine along the lines. Still
ultimately the lifting of sanctions will happen only when the political and economic
costs to Europe exceed the pressure that is brought to bear by the United
States. My recommendations further down in this interview would cause a quick
lifting of sanctions because they threaten the profits of German and
European banks to Russian
"Swiss style" competition.
Some experts believe
that the reason of economic crisis in Russia are not the Western sanctions, but
decrease in oil price. What do you think?
While I think it is
an organized action by the US and Saudi
Arabia, it's success to date in
dramatically lowering oil prices has been possible because of the global
recession and worldwide drop in demand for oil. The price of oil would have
pulled back in any case but the policy has made the downtrend worse and of a
longer duration.
But understand this
is a complicated situation not just aimed at Russia as this also dramatically
cuts revenue for Iran another nation in opposition to US hegemony. Also Sunni
Saudi Arabia rightly fears Shia Iran, as most of the Saudi oil resources are
right across the Persian Gulf from Iran including the world's largest, the
Ghawer field and most of the 15% Saudi Shite minority population lives in the
area where the reserves are located. Remember the Shite/Sunni divide in Islam
makes the Israel/Arab conflict pale in comparison and the Saudi Shites are treated
quite badly so they and the Saudi oil reserves could become a fertile ground
for Iranian actions.
Is it an organized
act by the US and Saudi Arabia? If it is so, then Obama deliberately endangered
the shale miracle in the US, didn't he?
Yes, as I answered in
the question above it is an organized act by the US and Saudi Arabia but the
leadership of Saudi Arabia jumped both at the chance to close the fracking and
shale oil production competition in the United States as well as to put
pressure on their arch enemy Iran.
Also much of the oil
production industry votes and supports Republican candidates rather than the
Democrats so Obama is not paying a huge political price. Finally although shale
oil production is not profitable unless oil is near $100 a barrel, the public
had already loaded up on these junk bonds and Wall Street had made their money
so it was time to fleece the unsophisticated investors. Regardless of US shale
oil production or losses, the opportunity to bring financial pressure against
Iran and Russia was worth the cost to the Washington political leadership.
What is needed for
the oil price starting to rise at last? Tyler Durden believes that it is Putin who should surrender Bashar
al-Assad, who does not give permission for gas pipeline installation from
Qatar to Europe. Do you agree?
It is too late to
surrender Bashar al-Assad and allow the Qatar pipeline as Washington has bigger
fish to fry, ie. Russia and Iran the last major energy suppliers outside of US
domination and control. Two events have to happen before oil gets expensive
again.
First, the price of
oil will rise when the global recession has ended and the world economy picks
up again. I believe the recession in China and the rest of the world is just
starting and it is related to overhanging amount of government debt and bonds
floating around the world. I really don't know how governments and the central
banks get us out of the looming debt crisis without wholesale debt repudiation.
Second, Washington
must decide that the disadvantages of artificially low oil prices hurt the US
economy more than the intended victims Iran and Russia.
As for Germany and
the EU, Hitler's violent goal of lebensraum for living spaces to farm, trade
and grow food for the Reich at the expense of the Russian people has today been
modernized to a longing for Russian natural resources ranging from timber, mining
to oil and gas in order to benefit Europe and Washington. I believe their goal
is economic rather than a military threat and this is just an expansion of an
ongoing natural resource grab outside the Middle East as the long-term
challenge for world supremacy between Washington & Wall Street VS China and
the Asian tigers slowly develop.
The issuance of
unredeemable government debt and bonds are the ultimate control mechanism by
the Western interests utilized in order to keep politicians, national leaders
and nations in line and march in lockstep to their economic programs. Russia under
Putin is not over indebted like almost
all other western nations thus allowing Putin to exercise leadership
independent of European and Washington demands and this makes Russia in their
eyes a threat to the continuation of the fake debt democracy system across the
West.
The ultimate goal is
to destabilize Russia by destroying the economy and limiting government revenue
and growth by holding oil prices at historically low levels. To do this they
must depose Putin, the national leader with the highest poll approval rating in
the world and replace him with a compliant quisling type of leadership
submissive to western interests as has been done in Ukraine. This goal could be
achieved due to Russia's extreme over dependence on energy resource revenue.
In my view it wasn't
the arms race, total failure of Russian
communism to benefit the masses nor the
inability to compete with the western market economies that overthrew the
communist party leadership in the former Soviet Union and the rest of the Warsaw Pact countries. Rather it was the government debt burden of Moscow and it's
other eastern European client states that eventually destroyed the Eastern Bloc
as political leaders increasingly tried to improve their low standards of
living and satisfy consumers through government borrowing from western banks.
This policy worked
for the West and the Soviet style communism is thankfully no more but this is
the same policy used today by Washington and in the European Union in order to
control the destiny and leadership of what should be independent national
governments. As you see with Greece, even in voting democracies where the
citizens demand a change, there can be no change because all politicians are
subservient to powerful foreign banking interests.
I would suggest that
Washington is indeed acting rationally if their goal is to preserve their power
base as well as the support of powerful banking and economic interests. The US
Empire has indeed reached it's zenith of power and authority in the world and
as America heads downhill as have all major empires in the past. Therefore it
is crucial to buy time by attempting to conquer or control energy resources
around the world hence why the US is involved across the Middle East and
increasingly in the Ukraine and is surrounding Russia and Iran.
Their goal for
Russia, now the ultimate ally of a resurgent China is economic vassalage,
territorial dismemberment and the development of "spheres of
influence" just like Great Britain did to India and the western countries
including Russia did to a weakened China in the 19th century.
Will Putin go the
length of it?
Well this is a tough
question for a non-Russian to comment on. He is the best politician on the
planet evidenced by his poll numbers and there is no question he is a patriot
and wants the best for his country, the people and of course your powerful
oligarchs.
I love the Washington
propaganda always lambasting
the evil Russian oligarchs because every country including the United States
have their own powerful interests or oligarchs that seek to use government as a
tool for their best interests. This is nothing new or sinister as government
and politicians everywhere have always operated this way.
Yes, I believe Putin
and Russia will survive this attack on Russian sovereignty and it's over
emphasis on energy resource revenue which is a mistake made by Russia not by
western interests. This economic war will end in stalemate because Russia
cannot be subdued by invasion, history shows us that and the increasing
alliance with China and other BRICS will help with better economic growth.
But I don't consider
a standoff as a victory for Putin or Russia. It is just maintaining the status
quo with Russia still at risk from western expansionism and the control of your
natural resources. Russia is now engaged in an asymmetrical war with the
American and European Union primarily over resources and the strategy and
tactics really differ between the West and Russia. Washington failed in goading
Russia into a military invasion of Ukraine as this could have drawn in other
European nations thus further weakening the Russian economy but the economic,
currency and financial warfare will continue hopefully short of military
action.
To date Russia only
reacts to western sanctions and economic warfare against your energy industry
thus there is neither real pain for the west nor any reason for them not to
ratchet up the sanctions against individuals, banking and other interests. They
are logically attacking your weakest link, the energy and financial sectors and
they certainly do not expect a major response from your side. Still dumping
Treasury debt by Russia or China would probably be counter productive and both
nations would be smart of liquidate US dollar debt in an organized regular
fashion during this near term period of tremendous dollar strength. This is
probably your last chance to unload US Treasury debt at a profit.
A defensive war
strategy even in an economic war is not a recipe for victory but rather a
guarantor of future wars or ultimate defeat. Putin and
Russia can win this economic war quite
easily if you think and act outside the box so to speak. The West is
legitimately attacking your economy at its weakest link, your over dependence
on the energy sector hence why low oil prices and the gas pipeline revolution
in the Ukraine were smart moves by your energy adversaries.
Utilize your
strengths and western weaknesses in your peaceful economic and financial
responses to the challenges they have made to your country. I've spent my
entire career in the financial industry and this is not rocket science on how
to successfully counter western political moves against you.
The weakness of the Western
banking and economic interests are massive government debt, the end of the
dollar as the world reserve currency and nationalism within the EU. There is no
way citizens or companies can escape the high taxes, massive debt service costs
and the inability of citizens or companies within Europe to escape their high
tax, regulatory environment that is killing the economy of Europe in order to
defend the primarily German banking interests. Financial privacy and all wealth
in Europe are at risk from future bail-ins where depositor's funds are used to
pay for excessive bank lending losses. We've already seen it in Cyprus and soon
it will happen in Greece and the PIGGS countries.
To win, you must have
other powerful economic interests outside Russia who can benefit and profit
from a sovereign independent Russia. The US has destroyed financial privacy and
confidentially around the world and no nation can stand up to their powerful
threats to other banking interests which means the private wealth of the entire
West will eventually be at risk of bank bail-ins, confiscation of retirement
funds and confiscatory tax rates when the bond crisis finally hit because there
is no secure alternative to protecting honest earned wealth.
As I've written in
earlier editorials, Russia can win the financial/energy/economic war only by
finding new sources of revenue outside the energy sector and playing on its
unique strengths. A low tax rate and friendly regulatory environment to attract
European/American industry and money is a start. It appears Russia is now
moving to offer economic citizenships and tax advantages in order to attract
entrepreneurs as I wrote a couple of months ago and this will help.
For example, I'm a
skier and where can you ski in the winter and enjoy a tropical climate the
other 6 months outside of a couple of very expensive locations in Switzerland,
Italy and France? You have skiing at Krasnaya
Polyana less than an hour from Sochi on
the Russian Riviera the site of the 2014 Olympics that could become another Hong Kong with the climate advantages and low
taxes and secure banking opportunities. Plus you have a relatively empty
Olympic village that could be remodeled into condos and flats for foreign
entrepreneurs and investors.
Finally Russia must
get aggressive in the economic war. You can win this economic contest in 24
months, if certain special zones in Russia simply are allowed to copy Swiss
banking rules and regulations, as wealth will always flow to secure locations
where taxes are low. You know what banking privacy and security did for
Switzerland, it made a poor country with few natural resources the wealthiest
nation in the world. You will have foreign banks and financial institutions
lining up to open offices in Russia if you can guarantee financial privacy to a
degree and wealth protection in total.
This will break the
monopoly of West in financial and banking as well as their power to threaten
you. The coming bond debacle guarantees this will work as I've written earlier
every nation has wealthy interests and their own oligarchs so why not
build support for Russia from wealthy foreigners as they transfer a portion of
their wealth as taxable income at a very low rate to your nation. This will end
the economic war.
Will there be set
peace in Ukraine in the near future? Which role will the US have in it?
No the Ukraine is
caught between competing sides in the East VS West conflict. Sadly it will
likely end up like Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan as a battleground and non
functioning state at least economically and maybe militarily caught between the
US and EU verses Russia. Russia will protect the Russian speakers and likely
will open a land route to the Crimea and maybe as far west as Odessa thus
cutting off the Ukraine from the Black Sea. Still all Russia needs is a Ukraine
non-aligned with the West or a member of NATO. The US will continue to promote
instability in the Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
Ron Holland
Ronald Holland is the
author of several books as well as numerous special reports and hundreds of
articles on finance, investments, history and politics. He speaks and moderates
frequently at financial and free-market conferences and has developed Swiss
oriented financial products in the US and Switzerland and his lived and worked
in the US, Switzerland and Canada. He was head of a bank trust department,
president of an investment firm licensed in 47 states and involved in resort
real estate marketing and sales. He consults with a wide range of individuals,
corporations and entities. Ron Holland can be reached at ron@haim.li
Pravda.Ru
Source: English Pravda 18-03-2015
