- After dragging their feet Kiev forces too are now withdrawing artillery
- Some 200 people are being recruited by rebels every day
- Kiev's supply system favors regular units at the expense of volunteer battalions
Colonel Cassad' is a Russian
blogger (reportedly one Boris Rozhin from Sevastopol, Crimea) and blog
that does not attempt to hide its pro-rebel sympaties, thus the referrences to
Kiev government as "junta" etc.
Its value is in that it has sources on the ground and its reports frequently turn out to be more accurate than the reporting of the other side.
Also unlike most pro-rebel and pro-government
blogs covering the conflict it does not tend toward sensationalism, but on the
contrary tends to provide sober and reserved analysis.
This is an abridged version
of an article that originally appeared at Colonel Cassad. It was translated
by Colonel Cassad in English
There is indeed a partial withdrawal of heavy
weapons. The junta, albeit much slower than the DPR and the LPR, is
pulling back some of the heavy weapons, even though all of this is accompanied
by periodic firefights without any serious operational significance.
Because they failed to push through the idea with the
peacekeepers, on the background of the withdrawal of the majority of heavy
weapons in the DPR the junta started to look altogether unpleasant with its
sabotage of the point of withdrawing heavy weapons. So, after Zakharchenko's
ultimatums and after an outcry from Europe directed at the junta and the DPR
that they should be withdrawing faster, they started to pull some things
back.
Also, the process is quite peculiar: while withdrawing some artillery and MLRS the junta continues not only the rotation on the front line but is also pulling in fresh armor both for replenishing the battered units and for reinforcement the groups that may engage in an offensive. Overall, they try to cheat where they can.
The general tendency is such that for some time the intensity of military action will reduce to minimal and it is more likely that there will be 1-2 months of "truce" in Donbass than not. At some point the "Empire of Good" and its Kiev puppets will certainly break this "truce", so both the NAF and the junta continue to prepare for the spring campaign.
According to the official sources in the DPR, currently up to 200 people per day reach the NAF through the recruitment offices. The figures are quite decent and if the reinforcement tempo will remain the same, then already by April the NAF will not only fully replenish the losses that were suffered during the winter campaign, but will actually increase their numbers, although the junta will still maintain a certain (albeit not critical) numerical superiority due to more significant mobilization capabilities.
[...]
On the replenishment of the junta forces after the winter campaign. The principal mass of materiel (new, repaired, and restored) is delivered to the AFU units. Territorial and punitive battalions get only the remains of materiel. This also applies to regular supplying, which is still partially based on volunteer shipments.
Already in the nearest future problems with the ammunition for heavy MLRS may be expected, which are not manufactured in Ukraine. Quite unexpectedly, there are issues with light firearms — of course there is a huge amount of them in Ukraine, but they are mostly ancient, so we can already see soldiers with old AK variants on the front, which is what they use to compensate for the lack of new firearms.
It is also worth noting that the mobilization supplies of Ukraine, which were opened during last spring for supplying ATO, significantly shortened after a year of war. Stocks of rations, canned meat, and fuel significantly reduced. Judging from the scandals in the junta leadership, some of these stocks didn't make it to the front (during the summer one could see packs of old cigarettes from the stocks of USSR times in Dnepropetrovsk) and were either stolen or sold on the black market.
The General Stuff is still not fully able to subdue the various battalions, because the military leadership fears political consequences (unrest in Kiev among them, there's no authorization [note from the translator: from the USA] to disperse them for now) + among the punitive troops and the soldiers of territorial battalions the authority of the minister of defense and the chief of the General Staff is very low and the informational campaign on turning the Debalcevo catastrophe into a victory is not very successful, the word of mouth spreads among the soldiers the stories of those who made it out of the cauldron along with the details of the command defection and hard conditions in which they had to defend and retreat. They blame the sector command and the General Staff for the losses.
The commander of the 128th brigade is indeed respected for making an independent decision and saving at least some of the people; even though he is an enemy, he did earn his reward.
Source: Russia
Insider 02-03-2015
