1. It must be said
right away that the decision of the Ukrainian CNSD is not going to satisfy the
DPR and the LPR and nobody is going to give up Debalcevo or the airport. This
decision is effectively directed towards undermining the Minsk agreements with
the goal of torpedoing the political part of the agreements signed on February
12. This is just another link in the long chain of acts of sabotage, in the
process of which the junta didn't finish the POW exchange, didn't stop
shooting, didn't pullback its heavy weapons and artillery, denied amnesty to
the DPR leaders, announced the people who were elected during Yanukovich to be
the only legal authorities, and is also trying to push through the deployment
of peacekeepers into Donbass with the goal of achieving immediate control over
the border. All of this suggests that the junta systemically and purposefully
sabotages the Minsk agreements with a quite clear goal: at a convenient moment
the junta must be able to resume the war and shift the blame for it on the DPR,
the LPR, and the RF.
2. Regarding the terms of the start of the war: as some readers noted, the topic of the inevitability of the resumption of military action clearly became more prominent in the Russian media. Also, the flow of information is increasing about the concentration of the junta military in the area of the front line and about the possible plans of the junta for conducting active military action. On the one side, this may just be another military alert, where the tension will decrease somewhat after the media noise, up until the moment when the military action will actually resume. But it cannot be ruled out that the resumption of high-intensity military action will be forced already by the end of March (like it was in the winter, where everybody had been waiting for the war in the spring, and it restarted in January). Disturbing news came from the border today: long lines of those who want to leave for Russia formed on the LPR and the DPR checkpoints. Yesterday the line at Izvarino was up to 150 cars. Today, according to the local information, the length of the line reached several kilometers. According to the refugees, some of them received information from the relatives in the occupied territories that the Ukrainian army will start military action during the period between 15th and 20th of March, which matches in principle to what Gleb Bobrov wrote about the possible junta offensive on the Lugansk front on March 16-17. In principle, the NAF are aware of this scenario, so there is no speaking of the junta being able to catch us by surprise. The junta has no significant chances of achieving significant successes or destroying Novorossia. The most threatening locations are: the area of the Bakhmutka road and Slavyanoserbsk, Gorlovka, and Yasinovataya, Volnovakha–Yelenovka–Dokuchayevsk. Overall, it may be that nothing will happen until April, but forced military scenarios cannot be completely ruled out.
3. It must be understood that the junta forces haven't fully recuperated after the losses suffered in the campaign of winter 2015. The ground also hasn't dried up everywhere, but the reasons of the possible junta activity have a political nature: it is important for the junta and for the USA to conclusively disrupt Europe's attempts at having its own game in the Ukrainian conflict and to push the situation towards the path of a military scenario, in which the junta counts on fighting with the help of the foreign military aid and on the political and economic pressure applied by the West on the RF. For this the junta is in principle ready to pay by territories and by two-three thousand soldiers, whom it traditionally loses in failed offensives and encirclements. But for the junta and its owners these losses are expendables, just a downpayment towards the development of the situation in a desired direction.
2. Regarding the terms of the start of the war: as some readers noted, the topic of the inevitability of the resumption of military action clearly became more prominent in the Russian media. Also, the flow of information is increasing about the concentration of the junta military in the area of the front line and about the possible plans of the junta for conducting active military action. On the one side, this may just be another military alert, where the tension will decrease somewhat after the media noise, up until the moment when the military action will actually resume. But it cannot be ruled out that the resumption of high-intensity military action will be forced already by the end of March (like it was in the winter, where everybody had been waiting for the war in the spring, and it restarted in January). Disturbing news came from the border today: long lines of those who want to leave for Russia formed on the LPR and the DPR checkpoints. Yesterday the line at Izvarino was up to 150 cars. Today, according to the local information, the length of the line reached several kilometers. According to the refugees, some of them received information from the relatives in the occupied territories that the Ukrainian army will start military action during the period between 15th and 20th of March, which matches in principle to what Gleb Bobrov wrote about the possible junta offensive on the Lugansk front on March 16-17. In principle, the NAF are aware of this scenario, so there is no speaking of the junta being able to catch us by surprise. The junta has no significant chances of achieving significant successes or destroying Novorossia. The most threatening locations are: the area of the Bakhmutka road and Slavyanoserbsk, Gorlovka, and Yasinovataya, Volnovakha–Yelenovka–Dokuchayevsk. Overall, it may be that nothing will happen until April, but forced military scenarios cannot be completely ruled out.
3. It must be understood that the junta forces haven't fully recuperated after the losses suffered in the campaign of winter 2015. The ground also hasn't dried up everywhere, but the reasons of the possible junta activity have a political nature: it is important for the junta and for the USA to conclusively disrupt Europe's attempts at having its own game in the Ukrainian conflict and to push the situation towards the path of a military scenario, in which the junta counts on fighting with the help of the foreign military aid and on the political and economic pressure applied by the West on the RF. For this the junta is in principle ready to pay by territories and by two-three thousand soldiers, whom it traditionally loses in failed offensives and encirclements. But for the junta and its owners these losses are expendables, just a downpayment towards the development of the situation in a desired direction.
Approximately a year
ago, when the Ukrainian army was marching on Donbass, it was met by common
people with empty hands. Now, however, after a year of a bloody war, Donbass
has something to meet the aggressor with, so there is no need to panic because
of the junta intentions — it was routed during the summer of 2014, it got
beaten in the winter of 2015, and if we'll see the continuation of the war in
the coming 1-2 months, I personally am sure that the junta will suffer its next
military defeat.
Source: Colonel
Cassad 14-03-2015
