Novorossiya Military Briefing – Situation by August 17, 2014

22:00 (UA) – Aug 16 – Military Briefing 

Original: Yurasumy LiveJournal

Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov
Right away, allow me to make a reservation. Some of the information has yet to be confirmed. It is provided here for the purpose of presenting a fulsome overview of the situation.

Counter-offensive of the DPR Army 

In the evening, the situation with respect to the counter-offensive of the DPR Army began to started to become clear. The strike has been made. However, it did not come from the direction of Ilovaisk. One of the columns is attacking Blagodatnoye from the side of Torez. At the time this was written, there was no information as to who controls the village, but the units of the Junta to the north of Saur-Mogila were cut off in the village of Petrovskoye.

Literally half an hour ago [Note: August 16, 2014, 21:30] the DPR Army announced the taking of the Uspenka border-crossing checkpoint. The second column, which was moving along the border, arrived at this border-crossing checkpoint in the morning and took control of it by the evening. In addition, artillery strikes were conducted on the Junta units in the area of Kuteynikovo. The DPR Army’s saboteur-reconnaissance groups (“SRG”) are active in the area of Starobeshevo.

Southern Cauldron 2.0

Kozhevnya has been taken. In the area of Miusinsk and Krasniy Luch, the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were partially eliminated and partially taken prisoner. There remain a few isolated pockets of resistance. Given that the DPR Army has commenced its assault, there is nowhere that they can expect help from, and that is why 17 soldiers of the 25^th Brigade today crossed the border into the Russian Federation and the DPR Army has been reporting cases of mass surrender by the remaining servicemen of the 25^th Brigade.

To the North of Donetsk

This is the only area where the Junta’s offensive has yet to run out of steam. Today there was a strike on Zhdanovka and Nizhnyaya Krynka. Fighting continues in these towns. An attack on Yasinovataya also took place. As yet, there are no results. The morning will show whether or not this is serious and if Gorlovka will be operationally encircled [Note: This danger did not come to pass, Gorlovka remains connected to Donetsk]. Due to lack of troops for an assault on Gorlovka, this offensive appears to be an attempt to distract the forces of the DPR Army from the crumbling southern front.

Counter-offensive in the LPR

The second counter-offensive, to the west and to the north of Lugansk, has been ongoing successfully for the past two days. Yesterday the settlement of Zimgorye and Rodakovo were taken. Today, the LPR Army liberated Sabovka. As a result, the Lutugino grouping of the Junta ended up in operational encirclement. Moreover, it is being squeezed by the LPR Army from the side of Uspenka. Also closer the evening reports were received that the troops of the punitive units were eliminated in the area of Khryashevatoye and that the enemy suffered significant losses in the area of Novosvetlovka. Most likely, by tomorrow the highway to Izvarino will again be free of the Ukrainian forces. Accordingly, a fuller picture of the operational plan of the counter-offensive has emerged – the complete unblocking of Lugansk.

Lugansk

Today there were insignificant battles in the northern suburbs of Lugansk; however, this fighting did not resemble an assault. By the evening, the fighting died down. There are no Ukrainian forces in the city.

Conclusions

The Junta’s offensive has nearly fizzled out. The units that ended up in the new Southern Cauldron are being subjected to fairly powerful pressure. Accordingly, the Militia has sufficient forces to eliminate the enemy units and the rout of the Ukrainian grouping will not turn into a lengthy saga this time around. Moreover, the offensive launched against Amvrosievka is developing successfully. The appearance of unified command can be felt.
This is especially visible in the case of the LPR. The strikes of the militiamen are well conceived and coordinated. As a result, the Junta grouping, which was weakened by the redeployment of a part of the forces to the Donetsk area, is retreating with losses. It is being simultaneously attacked from several directions and clearly lacks the troops to hold the stretched out front line. If the Lutugino grouping is not moved out to the north over the next day or two, it will repeat the fate of the Southern Cauldron, and the northern front of the punitive forces will be forced beyond the line of the Severskiy Donets river due to the lack of reserves (it is precisely from Severskiy Donetsk that the Junta commenced its offensive in the beginning of June).

The number of battle worthy units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that are present at the front has sharply declined. The Junta has been forced to plug holes in the front lines with Territorial Defence Battalions, which by no means can be considered to be battle ready units due to lack of proper training and heavy armaments. At the very least, the Junta’s southern front is floating out of control. The front to the north of Lugansk may be in the same situation next week (if the Junta continues stubbornly to latch on to the city of Lutugino). To the north of Donetsk the situation is complex, but overall controllable.

Note (Gleb Bazov): While this update sounds even more optimistic than the preceding one, this is not the time for rose-coloured glasses. The critical, and I would say – catastrophic, humanitarian situation continues to have a fundamental impact on the situation on the ground, and the remaining operational crises have yet to be resolved. Overall, while cautious optimism is warranted, it would be inappropriate to adopt the approach of the Ukrainian propaganda machine and trumpet victory. Save the champagne for Kiev.
 
Source: Slavyangrad.org 17-08-2014