Ukraine government must continue the war because it
cannot exist without it. The war is delaying the inevitable socio-economic
collapse of the country and allowing Kiev to pretend that there is national
unity
Rostislav Ishchenko is a
prominent Russian analyst.
What could you say about the recent statement by
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the recent de-escalation of the
conflict in Donbass? Is this really happening? Will Kiev fully comply with the
Minsk agreements? We hear continuous reports that Ukraine is building up
its military strength with Western help. Will you, please, comment on the EU
and US roles in this respect.
Poroshenko is saying what he is supposed to say, but
even he doesn’t seem to believe it. First, Ukraine does not conceal the fact
that it will only accept one end to the Donbass problem – the surrender of the
Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics. However, to achieve this, Kiev must win
militarily, which it obviously cannot do no matter how many people it drafts or
how much equipment its army receives. It cannot win even with Western supplies,
which aren’t expected in the near future anyway. To sum up, Kiev is unable to
win but must continue the war because the Kiev regime cannot exist without it.
The war is delaying the inevitable socio-economic collapse of the country and
justifies the terrorist methods used to run it. This is the only thing allowing
the regime to pretend that there is national unity and that the situation in
the country is under control.
There can be no doubt that the United States has an
interest in the war in Ukraine lasting as long as possible and being as bloody
and destructive as possible, but Washington does not want to use its resources
on propping up the Kiev regime that has no choice other than to
prosecute the war. So, Kiev will be pushed to step up its military
activities but won’t be helped (except with kind words).
As for the EU, it is irreparably divided. The United
Kingdom, Poland, and the collective Baltic limitrophe take a pro-American,
Russophobic position and are going all-out to escalate the confrontation with
Russia. Italy, Greece, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and some other
states are strong supporters of the EU conducting its own policy independent of
Washington and pursuing European rather than US interests. France and Germany
are hesitant, but recently they have been increasingly inclined to accept the
need for normalizing relations with Russia. True, they are still trying to
avoid a quarrel with America, but they will have to make a choice, and there is
reason to believe they will choose Russia.
Can elections be held in some territories of the
Donetsk and Lugansk regions? How might the assertion of their special status
affect the situation in Ukraine? What if some other regions follow the example
of the DPR and the LPR?
Elections in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions are
unrealistic. As I’ve said, Kiev is not going to comply with the Minsk
agreements. In other words, war is becoming inevitable. It is the only way the
sides can resolve their irreconcilable contradictions. This is why the
Ukrainian authorities will do whatever they can to shift the blame for wrecking
the peace process to the DPR, LPR and Russia.
As for other regions of Ukraine (the eight regions of
Novorossiya), they have wanted to follow the example of Crimea rather than the
DPR and the LPR since March 2014. When regional administration buildings were
occupied last March, the Russian tricolor was hoisted above them. Only when it
became obvious that Russia wouldn’t intervene militarily did all kinds of
“people’s republics” with their own symbols start to emerge. I think they are
temporary entities, but that does not mean there should be only two. Kiev has
alienated everyone in the past year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Lvov or a
Ternopol people’s republic. Of course, they would have the opposite ideology of
the DPR and the LPR, but Kiev already enjoys no more prestige in Galicia than
in Donbass.
Can Kiev make concessions or compromise with
southeastern Ukraine?
No, it’s impossible. Admitting that compromise is
possible at this point would mean admitting that everything was in vain – the
war, the tens of thousands of deaths, the destruction of the national economy
and even the 2014 armed coup and the formation of the terrorist Nazi regime.
That would only lead to the question of responsibility, which rests with those
who are currently in power. But they have made such a mess that life
imprisonment and the confiscation of property (if they survive to stand trial)
would be a mild punishment. So Kiev will fight to the end – its own rapidly
approaching end.
How should Russia react if the Minsk agreements
are violated by Kiev or Donbass?
Russia is already reacting. It is citing violations of
the agreements by Kiev and urging Paris and Berlin as their guarantors to
respond. As for the future, we’ll have to wait and see. When the war resumes,
we should play it by ear based on the outcome of the fighting.
What do you predict will happen in Ukraine? What
is the most realistic scenario today?
There is nothing good in store for Ukraine. I think
during this year it will sustain a military defeat and the disintegration of
its army, another coup and the collapse of what is left of its government
agencies, all-out chaos, the total destruction of the economy and the start of
subsistence farming for survival. The country is in for a humanitarian
catastrophe that practically no one is able to avert. The only thing left is to
try and mitigate its consequences. But to do this, the territory of modern
Ukraine must be occupied by an outside force capable of maintaining police
order, or the DPR and the LPR self-defense forces must be powerful enough to
occupy the entire territory, defeat Makhnovism and criminal rule and start
developing the economy from scratch, of course with foreign support. In other
words, without outside support no more than half of Ukraine’s current
population will survive after the imminent, final collapse of the state.
Survivors will be set back a century in terms of living standards and
civilization. This is why foreign intervention to restore law and order to
Ukraine after the collapse of Project Ukraine will be inevitable.
Source: Russia Insider 02-04-2015
