Yet another huge diplomatic victory for Russia

Unless you read Russian or monitor the free blogosphere, you might not have noticed this, but something big just happened in Russia: Kerry, Nuland and a large State Department delegation have traveled to Sochi were they met with Foreign Minister Lavrov and then with President Putin.  With the latter they spent over 4 hours.  Not only that, but Kerry made a few rather interesting remarks, saying that the Minsk-2 Agreement (M2A) was the only way forward and that he would strongly caution Poroshenko against the idea of renewing military operations.

To say that this is a stunning development would be an understatement.

For one thing, this means that the so-called “isolation of Russia” is now officially over, even for the “Indispensable Empire”.

Second, this is, as far as I know, the first official US endorsement of M2A.  This is rather humiliating for the US considering that M2A was negotiated without the Americans.

Third, for the very first time the US has actually warned the Ukronazi junta against a military attack.  This, at a time when the Ukronazis are in a state of bellicose frenzy and Poroshenko just promised to re-conqueor not only the Donetsk Airport, but all of the Donbass and even Crimea, show that for the very first time the US and Kiev are not on the same page.

Fourth, the USA has, for the first time, declared that if M2A was implemented, EU and US sanctions would be lifted.  Interestingly, the Russians were not even interested in discussing the topic of sanctions.

So what does that all mean?

At this point, nothing much.

Americans are terrible negotiators and in every single US-Russian negotiation over the conflict in the Ukraine the Russians completely out-negotiated their American “geostrategic partners” (the quasi-official ironic Russian term describing the West) every time.  What typically happens, is that Kerry caves in, then comes back to Washington and changes his tune by 180 degree.  The Russians know that and the Russian media stressed that in its analyses.

Still, the USA can zig and then zag as many times as they want, reality does not zag.  If anything, the recent presence of Chinese and Indian troops on the Red Square showed that the notion of “isolating Russia” is a non-starter whether Kerry & Co. accept it or not.

Then, there was the rather interesting behavior of Nuland, who was with Kerry’s delegation, she refused to speak to the press and left looking rather unhappy.

Finally, a quick check of the Imperial Mouthpieces reveals that the Imperial Propaganda Department does not really know what to make of it all.

So what is going on, really?

Honestly, this one is too early to call and, as I said, the chances for yet another US “zag” are very high.

Still, what *might* be happening is that the Americans have finally (!) figured out a few basic facts:

1. Russia will not back down
2. Russia is ready for war
3. The Nazi-occupied Ukraine is collapsing
4. Most of the world supports Russia
5. The entire US policy towards Russia has failed

All of the above is rather obvious to any halfway competent observer, but for an Administration completely intoxicated with imperial hubris, crass ignorance and denial these are very, very painful realities to catch up with.  However, denying them might, at the end of the day, get the USA nuked.  As the expression goes, if you head is in the sand, your ass is in the air.

Thus it is possible that what just happens is the first sign of a US sobering up and that what Kerry came to explore with Lavrov and Putin is some kind of face saving exit option.  If that is so, then this is terminal news for Poroshenko as this means that the US has basically thrown in the towel in utter disgust with the freaks in power in Kiev.

Furthermore, this might be a sign that US military analysts have taken a very negative view of the Ukronazi changes of success in their planned “Reconquista” of the Donbass.  By going to Russia and officially endorsing M2A Kerry might be sending a message to Poroshenko: forget it, it ain’t happening!

Still, I would strongly caution against any premature optimism.  I consider a US “zag” a quasi-certitude.  My hope is that the “zag” will be limited in magnitude and that when it happens, it will be more about face-saving exit for Obama than about a denial of reality.

What is certain though, is that Russia has won yet another battle is this long war and that all the signs are pointing at the inevitable defeat of the Empire.

The Saker

Source: The Vineyard of the Saker 14-05-2015

John Kerry in Russia: USA is losing the continent of Eurasia

US Secretary of State John Kerry shared his impressions of yesterday's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Kerry described the talks a "significant and serious" adding that neither side was seeking a "major breakthrough" in any particular area. Kerry addressed a range of topics during the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The officials discussed ISIS, sanctions, and the state of a Russian/Ukrainian ceasefire.

According to Kerry, it is important for Russia and the United States to keep communications open even at the time when relations remain tense. 

Afterwards, US Secretary of State John Kerry is flying to Turkey, Antalya, to meet with allies and partners who are going to take part at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers. Kerry will then return to Washington to participate in President Barack Obama's talks with the leaders of the Gulf countries.

Pravda.Ru asked political scientist, director of international projects of the National Strategy Institute of Russia Yuri Solozobov to share his views of the intrigue of the meeting. The May 9 parade showed a very high degree of consolidation of the Russian society around Vladimir Putin as the national leader. Secondly, the Russian army demonstrated its strength as well, meaning that Russia is ready for any development of the scenario, the expert told Pravda.Ru.

"If the West wants war - fine. Russia has all necessary resources for that, but the country does not want to fight. If the West wants peace, then Russia has long been open to peace, but the road to peace lies outside the quadrangle of Kiev, Berlin, Paris and Moscow," said Yuri Solozobov.

Noteworthy, US Secretary of State John Kerry said that US and EU sanctions can be lifted after Minsk accords are fully implemented.

 

John Kerry's visit to Russia means Norman format is changing

"Anybody who has any control over anybody (in eastern Ukraine) needs to take every step possible to fully implement" the cease-fire accord, Kerry said at a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The intrigue of John Kerry's visit to Moscow is about the change of the "Norman format" from four to five members, Yuri Solozobov told Pravda.Ru.

The expert stressed out that the largest US embassy in the world was in Ukraine. According to him, it is an open secret that the Ukrainian Security Service is a branch of the CIA. Many American advisers actually command the political regime in Kiev. "There is a strange situation that we have. We agree on a cease-fire, but then some people start breaking it from the Ukrainian side following a sudden command from the outside. Without the participation of the United States such a truce is hardly possible," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

The expert also pointed out a diplomatic solution to the question of sanctions. "The parade has shown outlines of a possible future strategic alliance between the Eurasian Economic Community and the PRC. Even the Moscow-Beijing-Delhi triangle has obtained distinct military specifications, for example, in the field of the joint air and missile defense system. The US is terribly worried about all this. The Americans realize that they are losing the continent of Eurasia. It is the dramatic change in the balance of forces on the world political scene that prompted Secretary of State Kerry to arrive in Sochi to negotiate with Putin and."

Pravda.Ru

Source: English Pravda 13-05-2015

Happy Birthday Donbass!

Just a short – but dramatic – year ago, the people of the Donbass voted in a referendum to create the People’s Republic of Donetsk (DNR).  They naively hoped that this referendum would force the junta in Kiev to finally begin serious negotiations.  Instead, they got *total* war featuring armored assaults, aerial bombings, the use of ballistic missile and chemical attacks.  And yet, under these absolutely horrific conditions, the people of the DNR made absolutely amazing achievements; not only did they transform a volunteer militia into a real military force, while at the same time beating back two full-scale military attacks by the Ukronazi military, they also cracked down on the huge crime wave of war-profiteering, kidnapping, rapes, aggravated assaults, etc.  They did not let the infighting between various groups, clans, leaders and factions turn into an internal civil war and they succeeded, albeit with great difficulty, in unifying the command structure.  They have started down the long road of re-establishing normal, social and governmental services and even though the socio-economic situation is still critical, the people of the DNR understand what is happening and an overwhelming majority supports it.

Zakharchenko has proven himself to be a formidable leader, much more sophisticated than what many had initially thought.  There are still tensions inside the DNR leadership, but at least those tensions do not result in open armed clashes.  The murder of DNR commanders, whether this was the result of internal conflicts or Ukronazi covert operations, appears to have been stopped.

Since the beginning of the conflict, over 2’000’000 Ukrainians have fled to Russia, including 50’000 draft evaders, but more and more people are coming back and Novorussia is slowly being re-built.

This is not to say that they have “made it”.  Far from it.  A third Ukronazi assault appears to be inevitable and, possibly, imminent, and the entire economy of the Donbass needs to be rebuilt.  But what the Novorussians have achieved so far is already absolutely remarkable.

Watching the V-Day parade in Donetsk was most interesting, especially after the picture-perfect mega-event in Moscow.  The contrast could not have been bigger.

The Russians were showing off absolutely perfect order and training; the Novorussians looked like they had no time at all to prepare.

The Russians were showing off their brand new high tech gear; the Novorussians were proudly parading Soviet 1970 equipment.

The Russian troops and equipment were shining and outrageously clean; the Novorussians just had the time to give their uniforms and gear a quick wash.

The Russians even had a bright shining sun; the poor Novorussians had their parade literally rained on.
And yet, the Novorussian parade was also absolutely beautiful.  For one thing, it took place in the midst of a war and in circumstances where an attack was not only possible, but even likely.  Then, there is the fact that every single soldier, commander or piece of equipment shown in downtown Donetsk, was one less available to defend against any attack.  Quite a few of the participants to the parade in Donetsk were clearly wounded, including Zakharchenko himself.  And, finally, while the Kremlin is awash in billions of Rubles, the Novorussians probably had to scrape the bottom of every pocket they had, to pay their comparatively modest parade.

But they did it.  Right under the nose of the Ukronazis and their western allies.  Just like Stalin did it under the nose of the Nazis on November 7th 1941, when the armies of Germany and her allies were at the gates of Moscow.

In 1941, and just as in Crimean War before, the usual “European Ecumenical Coalition of the Willing” was united against Russia]

And just as in 1941, a lot of the men and women whom we saw on the parade, were probably directly sent to the frontlines at the end of the festivities.

I would argue that the Donbass has become a model, an example, which Russia ought to emulate, and not the other way around.  In many ways, the previously lukewarm and indifferent Donbass has become more Russian than Russia and within one year of its creation, the Donbass has a huge, and totally positive impact on Russia herself.  That is also an immense achievement for the people of Novorussia.

This war is far from over.  As I have written so many times, there is no “Novorussian” solution to this war, nor is there a “Ukrainian” one.  For Novorussia to be free, the Ukraine must be de-nazified and for the Ukraine to be de-nazified, the Anglo-Zionist Empire must be beaten back, if not beaten down.  At the very least, Uncle Sam needs to lose his iron grip over the Ukraine and the EU.

Zakharchenko has recently declared that this war would probably end by the end of the year.  Is that possible?  In theory – yes.  This is how it would happen: the third Ukrainian attack would fail, the Novorussian would reconquer Kramatorsk, Slaviansk or Mariupol (or any combination thereof) at which point both Russia and the EU would demand a cease-fire, followed by negotiations (just as with Minsk 1 and 2) and the junta in Kiev would be overthrown (as a direct result from this third operational defeat).  This is not impossible, but the problem is that it remains unclear who would replace the current junta.  Would it be a new, even more Nazi junta of Right Sector freaks?  I don’t think anybody can tell at this point in time.  I hope that Zakharchenko is right, but I am personally bracing for a much longer struggle.

But today is a good day to look at the past, the distant past and the recent past, not the future.  And having celebrated the defeat of Nazi Germany over the weekend, we can now all celebrate the birthday of the DNR and wish her многая лето! (many years!).

Happy birthday Donbass!

The Saker

Source: The Vineyard of the Saker 12-05-2015

Militia intelligence say Kiev concentrates forces along engagement line in east Ukraine

Ukraine’s armed forces continue fortifying their positions both at the engagement line and deep in the rear, continue bringing in units and equipment

MOSCOW, May 11. /TASS/. Reconnaissance units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) see the Ukrainian military continue gathering forces by the engagement line in Donbas and fortify their positions, spokesman of the republic’s Defense Ministry Eduard Basurin told reporters on Monday.

"Our reconnaissance units report Ukraine’s armed forces continue fortifying their positions both at the engagement line and deep in the rear, continue bringing in units and equipment, thus confirming their preparations for combat action," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him.

Earlier on Monday, the ministry said the Ukrainian military action has violated ceasefire arrangements in war-torn eastern territory 37 times over the last 24 hours, including with use of heavy weapons. The DPR’s authorities consider this situation as Kiev’s attempts to fail the process of peaceful settlement.
 
Source: ITAR-TASS 11-05-2015